Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage Rates Waiting on the Federal Reserve
by Victor Burek
15 Mar 2010 at 10:24pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage rates moved higher early Friday morning following a better than expected read on Retail Sales. However, as the day progressed, benchmark Treasury yields did move lower, helping mortgage-backed securities prices recover early session losses. Most lenders did not reprice for the better after these improvements though. After a slow week of economic data, the calendar picks up in the days ahead. Starting with manufacturing data this morning.... Each month, the New York Federal Reserve conducts a survey of approximately 175 manufacturing executives in New York State on the strength of business conditions. Readings above 0 indicate expanding or improving conditions while readings below 0 indicate contraction. This data has indicated steady improvements since August of 2009. The Empire State...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS CLOSE: Flat Day Reiterates Focus On FOMC
by Matthew Graham
15 Mar 2010 at 9:33pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary
In shocking twist of events, MBS end where they begin, with 4.5 at 100-29 "Huge" change in treasuries too with 10yr at 3.695 vs. 3.701 coming into the day (a whole 6 thousands) Stocks rally to close right at their best levels from Friday, but no higher. Stock lever didn't hurt bonds. Tomorrow AM data of low to moderate importance: Housing Starts at 830 expected at .565 mln vs .591 mln previously Import/Export Prices at 830 (previously .8% MoM and 3.4% YoY on exports and 1.4% MoM and 11.5% YoY on imports) Important stuff later in day with FOMC announcement at 215pm Did you know that MoM and YoY refer to "month over month" change and "year over year" change, respectively? We use that from time to time, as do others. And armed with that little bit of knowledge...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Ranking the Largest Banks by Assets; Warehouse Lending; More on Mandatory vs....
by C.M. "Corky" Watts, CMB
15 Mar 2010 at 8:33pm
Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report
With all the moving and shifting, here are the most recent numbers on the largest banks ranked by assets: A few others you know are: #12 U.S. Bancorp ($265 billion), #17 BB&T ($165 billion), #23 Fifth Third ($110 billion), #33 Comerica ($59 billion), #82 Sterling Financial, Spokane ($11.9 billion). Top bank research firm Keefe, Bruyette has identified 21 distinct periods of bank performance starting in the early 1960s. Outperformance periods averaged 34 months in length, during which bank stocks outperformed the market by an average of 20.8% annualized. The under-performance cycles averaged 23 months, during which bank stocks lagged the market by 20% per year, on average. Our view is that an outperformance for small cps banks is just around the corner. A good example of how much access...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS AFTERNOON: Coasting To Uneventful Conclusion
by Matthew Graham
15 Mar 2010 at 8:10pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary
MBS 4.5's unchanged at 100-28 10yr Tsy at 3.703 Stocks Rallying BIG into their close with S&P at 1150, same as last week's ceiling Seems like the S&P rallying from 1143 to 1150 should be more important than it's actually turning out to be for bonds. Without looking at the stock market itself, you'd scarcely be able to infer that rally from any weakness in bonds. Indeed, treasuries and MBS yields have moved about as much as a fully depressed Toyota gas pedal. The focus remains on FOMC tomorrow. This is probably part of the reason stocks can get away with a late day rally without affecting bonds too much, not to mention there's limited volume behind it....(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Home Builder Confidence Falls. Foul Weather and Distressed Sales Cited as Reason
by Adam Quinones
15 Mar 2010 at 7:17pm
Posted To: MND NewsWire
The National Association of Home Builders released their monthly Housing Market Index today. Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. In March, Builder confidence lost the small amount of progress seen in February...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Loan Mod Conversion Rate Improves in February. True Success Depends on Job Cr...
by Jann Swanson
15 Mar 2010 at 6:40pm
Posted To: MND NewsWire
The Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) , a joint effort by the Departments of the Treasury and Housing and Urban Development to prevent foreclosures, is reporting that 168,708 homeowners have now graduated from the HAMP trial modification program and have active permanent modifications by the end of February. This works out to a 12.4 percent conversion rate, a modest improvement from January when the permanent modification conversion rate was 9.2 percent. The program, which began last spring, has now enrolled 1,094,064 borrowers in modifications which lower mortgage payments to a maximum of 31 percent of monthly income. 1,354,350 invitations to participate in the program have been extended to distressed homeowners. This is 34 to 45 percent of the goal of 3 to 4 million set for the end of...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS LUNCH: Slow Day, But Favoring Bonds
by Matthew Graham
15 Mar 2010 at 6:35pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary
4.5's up a tick at 100-29 10yr tsy up .004 in yield to 3.704 General post-retail-sales theme, stocks down, bonds better, waiting on FOMC After starting weaker, MBS are back into the green, but only slightly. Still, looking over the past several days, we're right in the mix, which is right where you'd expect considering Friday failed to change any paradigms and that the market is waiting for the next big shoe to drop in the form of FOMC tomorrow. Treasuries and stocks tell the story even better. Of course we see the clear failure of respective tests on Friday (test= approach and touch a significant price/yield level), but even today, new technical levels are being created on the way back to the center of the range. For treasuries, that looks like 3.73. In stocks, after we see the...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Foreign Demand for TSY Notes and Bonds Still Strong
by Adam Quinones
15 Mar 2010 at 3:07pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary
The Treasury Department this morning released Treasury International Capital data for January 2010. This report tracks flows of investment funds leaving and entering the U.S financial system. Foreign accounts bought a net total of $61.4bn in TSY notes and bonds in January 2010 . Compare that to $69.9bn in Dec and $117.9bn in November and $289.2 billion in January 2009. Notes are debt securities with a maturity between 1 year and 10 years (rate sheet influential). Bonds are debt with a maturity greater than 10 years. Both notes and bonds trade with a coupon. Yields are determined by the coupon and the price the market is willing to pay for that coupon clip. For instance, the 10 yr note is trading with a 3.625% coupon. Current market is 3.71%. The yield is higher than the coupon, the 10 year...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
FDIC Selling Mortgage Assets of Failed Banks; "Good" Foreclosure Stats; Updat...
by Rob Chrisman
15 Mar 2010 at 3:04pm
Posted To: Pipeline Press
As the lyrics from "Green Acres" noted, "New York is where I'd rather stay. I get allergic smelling hay. I just adore a penthouse view. Dah-ling I love you but give me Park Avenue." New York regulators on Friday closed the Park Avenue Bank with total assets of $520 million and total deposits of $494 million. The FDIC has arranged for Valley National Bank (NJ) to run it. (Valley National is also taking over LibertyPointe Bank, which was shuttered Thursday.) Down in Florida Old Southern Bank was shut down, and will be run by Centennial Bank out of Arkansas. And in Louisiana, Statewide Bank was closed by the Louisiana Office of Financial Institutions, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. Home Bank , also based in Louisiana, will assume all of the deposits. There is indeed...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS OPEN: Range Trade with a Chance of Chopatility
by Adam Quinones
15 Mar 2010 at 12:22pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary
Good Morning. An essentially empty econ calendar made it easy for rates traders to price in a pre-auction concession last week. The corresponding effect was higher benchmark yields and steeper yield curve (more expensive funding for TSY too!). However, healthy demand was seen taking down the debt and the pre-auction concession was pretty much price back out of the curve...leaving us almost flat on the week. Below is the week over week for the 3.625% coupon bearing 10 year note. On Monday morning, 10s were yielding 3.696%, moved as high as 3.779% over the course of the week, then fell back to 3.703% by Friday afternoon. Status quo was restored after the auctions. On Friday afternoon, the FN 4.0 was +0-01 at 97-28 yielding 4.208% and the FN 4.5 was +0-00 at 100-28 yielding 4.402%. The secondary...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
The Week Ahead: FOMC Meeting, Housing Data, Inflation, Industrial Production
by Patrick McGee
15 Mar 2010 at 12:01pm
Posted To: MND NewsWire
Equity markets are mostly lower across the globe Monday, leading US stocks to open sharply lower ahead of a moderately busy schedule. Two hours before the bell sounds, Dow futures are off 30 points to 10,543 and S&P 500 futures are down 4.50 points to 1,142.00. Commodity prices are mixed as WTI crude oil is trading down 58 cents to $80.66 per barrel but Spot Gold prices are up $2.37 to $1,104.27. Key Events This Week: Monday: 8:30 ? The Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to expand for the eighth consecutive month in March. The consensus expects the index to fall 3 points to 22.0 in March, reflecting strong growth overall in the region. Economists from Nomura worry that the strong figures in February may not have been wholly accurate due to the early timing of the release. “Most...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Harmony Of The Trends And The Whole Day Explained In One Chart
by Matthew Graham
12 Mar 2010 at 11:47pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary
(A bit long, but another worthwhile closing post to read... with some not-often-phrased-in-such-a-way explanations. I enjoyed writing it at least. Let me know what you think.) You know the "stock lever?" If not, that's the term we use to describe the common occurrence of stock prices and bond prices moving in opposite directions. Doesn't happen all the time, but in a general sense, sure. Last night we talked about both stock and bond markets closing at some pretty long term "on the fence levels" and so it was a reasonable assumption that it was up to retail sales and whatever else Friday could muster to convince stocks to go one way and bonds to go the other. I didn't have the minerals to offer a solid prediction, but simply that it could be a big day either...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Mortgage Rates Higher After Retail Sales Data. Floating into Monday
by Victor Burek
12 Mar 2010 at 9:20pm
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch
While benchmark Treasury yields moved slowly higher throughout the course of the week as our government auctioned debt to raise spending money, mortgage-backed securities managed to maintain a pretty consistent price range. After all was said and done and the auctions were behind us, mortgage rates were left basically unharmed, near the best levels of 2010. There was one more test to pass though: RETAIL SALES DATA. The Commerce Department released Retail Sales data at 8:30 am eastern this morning This report shows the monthly change in the total receipts at retail stores. Since consumer spending accounts for a large majority of GDP, market participants track retail sales to gauge economic growth. Last month’s report posted a 0.5% increase, a notable improvement from December’s disappointing...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
What Did Top Performing Mortgage Bankers Earn in 2009?
by C.M. "Corky" Watts, CMB
12 Mar 2010 at 8:51pm
Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report
Audited financials are starting to come in, and they’re confirming what we saw all year. Top performing mortgage bankers made 90-100 bps per loan. That means, for every $100 million you closed, you should have (and could have) earned $900,000 to $1 million. If you didn’t make this much, you need to look carefully at why you didn’t. Or call us for a FOCIS-plus diagnostic to see what you can do to boost earnings per loan. The top quintile of companies we worked with over the year made over 100 bps per loan, with the top performer making 121 bps. For every $100 million they closed, they made $1.21 million. What most mortgage company Boards are somewhat clueless about is their earnings broken down into bps per loan. We see companies that did, say, $1 billion last year and earned...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
MBS LUNCH: Mortgages Left Behind as Benchmarks Rally
by Adam Quinones
12 Mar 2010 at 7:50pm
Posted To: MBS Commentary
It was an interesting morning in the rates world. Let's start with our fearless leader, the benchmark 10 year note. In below average trading volume, yields rose marginally (at most) in the overnight session before popping higher on the heels of a much better than expected Retail Sales print at 830. After that we noticed some nibbling from real money accounts as 10s hit session price lows (yield highs). This bargain buying coupled with a short covering bid helped push yields lower ahead of the release of Consumer Sentiment survey results, which turned out to be worse than expected at 72.5 vs. forecasts for 73.6. The reading was however not far from the six month average and much improved from levels one year ago. Here is a table of the results: On the surface this data appears to be bond...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Newsfeed display by CaRP